TOTAL PROFIT: +766 | WEEK 6 RESULT: +63 | 14/10/19 - 20/10/19

After a boring previous week, normality was restored with all European football leagues back in action! As you can see I made a small profit this week, but the good news is that I managed to place 259 trades. This week I’ll take you guys through where the majority of Trademate users sit at this point in their journey, along with a few tips for people thinking of starting their journey soon!

After a boring previous week, normality was restored with all European football leagues back in action! As you can see I made a small profit this week, but the good news is that I managed to place 259 trades. This week I’ll take you guys through where the majority of Trademate users sit at this point in their journey, along with a few tips for people thinking of starting their journey soon!

I’M DOING BETTER THAN THE AVG. USER

If you take a look at this article, I’m performing better than the average Trademate user in the bracket of 1k-2k trades if you’re looking at my ROI. The reason why my profits are not as big is because of my low starting bankroll. It’s obviously great that my ROI is higher than most Trademate users, but it’s mostly down to luck and I need to remember that my results will converge towards my closing EV over time.

THEORETICAL HIT RATE RESULTS

If you look at the graph below, it shows that in the odds range 1-4, where I have placed the majority of my trades, I’m running where I theoretically should be for the most part. For example, theoretically I should be hitting odds of 3.25 - 30.8% of the time, but I’m hitting them 29.2% of the time. What I’m trying to say is that by looking at the graph, you can see that odds are accurate and over time the balls will only get closer to the blue line. In other words, there’s a reason why I hit 1.75 odds 55% of the time, compared to 1.5 odds, which I’m hitting 63.8% of the time, it’s not about luck! This is why it’s important to have an edge over the bookie and a staking strategy like the Kelly criterion.

WOULDN’T RECOMMEND BETFAIR

Over my six weeks of trading, I’ve noticed that Betfair Sportsbook UK are very quick at decreasing their odds. This week I only managed to place a total of 12 trades with them, and during my whole journey they’ve only accounted for 118 of my 1,190 trades. If you’re thinking of opening an account with them be wary of this and either allocate a small % of your bankroll to them or try another bookie.

MAX BET SIZE RAISE

As I did in Week 3, I’ve once again raised my max bet size to $35 as that’s roughly 2% of my current bankroll.

TRADES OF THE WEEK

Below are some screenshots of my biggest edge and biggest win, along with my biggest negative edge, biggest winning trade and biggest losing trade respectively.

Check out my Week 0 video, showing how I got set up with my Trademate and betting accounts here!

Check out how I went in Week 1 here, Week 2 here, Week 3 here, Week 4 here and Week 5 here!